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Oct 27

ufakzeka-karar: An Open Turkish Typed-Decision Model with Order-Invariant Option Scoring

ufakzeka-karar is an open Turkish decision model with 182,494,466 parameters. Given a Turkish text and questions of a fixed answer type (a choice, a level on an ordered scale, or yes or no), it returns a temperature-scaled probability for every option and an expected error that serves as a "not sure" signal, without generating text and in one CPU forward pass for up to ten options. Built on the lab's ufakzeka-1-base, its head scores each option blind to the others at shared positions, so the answer does not depend on option order. A sequential head trained with shuffled options was about as accurate but changed 2.3 to 2.8 percent of its answers when only the option order changed; REINFORCE lost 10.2 points (0.102) of macro F1 to cross-entropy. On the open set of HakemBench v1.0 (4,275 questions, 7 tracks) the released model ranks 7th of 16 rows with a composite of 0.660 (95% interval 0.642 to 0.677). Temperature scaling lowers calibration error (smooth ECE) on the development set but raises it on held-out support questions, from 0.027 to 0.045 for the first scored run, which never trained on them; the released model later trained on them, so its 0.036 to 0.064 is not an unseen-question test. The released model is the last of three runs scored on HakemBench, and its numbers are not blind. The second run's new training data was aimed at the first run's errors on the full test set in guardrails, moderation and customer support, and the released run was trained after the second run's guardrail results on the full test set were read, under a protocol fixed in writing before any of its data, code or runs. All its numbers come after these readings; its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers carry the flag "shaped by reading the test results". With every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16. Weights and code are under Apache-2.0.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 4

LiLiCorr: Lightweight Likelihood Correlation of Parallel Drafts for Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding accelerates language-model inference by drafting future tokens the target model verifies in parallel. A diffusion-style drafter such as DFlash drafts an entire block in one forward pass. It is trained on the per-position marginals rather than on the joint distribution over the block, so the tokens it emits are individually plausible yet jointly incoherent. We introduce LiLiCorr, a Lightweight Likelihood-based model that Correlates the per-position marginals such a drafter produces. It keeps the top-K tokens at each position and processes them jointly, emitting an in and an out vector for each. Two candidates at consecutive positions match when the earlier out vector aligns, in cosine similarity, with the later in vector. Training scores the correct pairings highest and pushes competing ones down, so coherent blocks outscore incoherent ones. The joint distribution over the block, exponential in its length, is never materialized. One lightweight network pass produces all the vectors, the pairwise scores follow as batched matrix operations, leaving only a cheap greedy walk sequential. We co-train the DFlash drafter with LiLiCorr, so it proposes candidates that correlate into longer accepted sequences. Over the vanilla DFlash drafter it builds on, LiLiCorr accepts more and serves faster at all 72 settings we test: nine benchmarks at two target sizes under greedy and temperature-one decoding, plus a throughput sweep over six concurrencies, two input lengths and three output-entropy tiers. It raises acceptance length by 7 to 19%, while its single-pass scoring head costs only about 3% of the per-block latency. Against three concurrently developed methods that also restore coherence at draft time, all equally optimized on a common stack, LiLiCorr holds the highest throughput in 63 of those settings, ties within a measured noise floor in 6, and trails in only 3.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 21

PhyProbe: Rethinking Physical Consistency Evaluation in Generated Videos

Evaluating the physical consistency of generated videos remains a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches rely on off-the-shelf vision-language models, which can often be myopic to physical dynamics, or fine-tuned evaluators trained on human annotations, which overfit to dataset-specific cues and fail to generalize. A key challenge is that existing supervision sources provide either relative ordering or absolute scores, but not both reliably and consistently across varied settings. To this end, we introduce PhyProbe, an evaluator that extracts features from a frozen pretrained spatio-temporal encoder and maps them to a scalar physical consistency violation score via a lightweight scoring head. PhyProbe is trained through a unified objective combining pairwise ranking, regression on noisy scalar annotations, and anchor-based calibration over a curated set of heterogeneous supervision sources. Experiments show that PhyProbe outperforms prior methods on most pairwise benchmarks spanning real-generated and generated-generated pairs under varying correspondence, with the largest gains in no-correspondence and generated-generated settings where existing fine-tuned evaluators degrade sharply. PhyProbe achieves strong correlation with human judgments, with close agreement between rank-based and linear metrics, indicating that scores are both well ordered and anchored to a stable [0, 1] scale. Further, despite being trained on supervision indicative of physical consistency, without explicit general-preference labels, PhyProbe also performs competitively on human preference benchmarks: consistent with the observation that physics violations are entangled with broader quality degradations.

nvidia NVIDIA
·
Sep 28 1

Can Retrieval Heads See Images? Multimodal Retrieval Heads in Long-Context Vision-Language Models

Large vision-language models increasingly rely on long-context modeling to reason over documents, hour-level videos, and long-horizon agent trajectories, requiring them to locate relevant evidence across interleaved text and images. Prior work has studied this behavior using retrieval heads in large language models, but its copy-based criterion does not directly apply when evidence appears in images. We introduce a multimodal retrieval head detection method that scores attention from question tokens to textual or visual evidence. With this method, we show that multimodal retrieval heads are sparse, intrinsic, and causally important: only 4.4-10.2% of attention heads account for 50% of the positive retrieval-score mass, and masking the top-5% selected heads drops MMLongBench-Doc from 48.2% to 5.7% and SlideVQA from 71.2% to 8.9%, while random-head masking is far less damaging. Further analysis shows that these heads are partly shared across modalities yet remain dynamic within each modality, with image retrieval heads changing more than text retrieval heads as context length and haystack modality change. Without further training, we find that these heads can also be used directly to rank visually rich documents: on MMDocIR, Qwen3-VL-8B selected-head scoring improves Recall@1 by 7.7/7.4 macro/micro points for page retrieval and 6.3/6.8 points for layout retrieval over the strongest reported baseline.

  • 12 authors
·
May 25

Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction

We study KV cache eviction under a shared globally capped decode-time harness. Seven policies (LRU, H2O, SnapKV, StreamingLLM, Ada-KV, QUEST, Random) share a prompt-boundary vulnerability: without structural protection, they collapse to near-zero quality on six pure-transformer models (F1leq0.064). Reserving 10\% of cache at each boundary recovers 69--90\% of the C{=}2{,}048 reference-ceiling quality on seven LongBench models at C{=}256 (13\% retention); a ten-model panel spans 68--98\%. An attention-mass pilot (Qwen2.5-3B, N{=}30) suggests why: the position-0 sink holds {sim}75% of prefix mass, while other boundary tokens sit near {sim}0.41{times} uniform expectation, so attention scorers retain the sink but still drop structurally critical tokens. With protection, simplified score-isolation variants are TOST-equivalent to LRU at K{=}32 (Δ{=}0.02); at K{=}8, attention policies pairwise converge yet beat LRU by 0.011--0.021 F1 across C{=}256 and C{=}512. Faithful Ada-KV/QUEST add {sim}0.03--0.04 F1 on Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5 beyond simplified variants. A NIAH-32K regime-transfer pilot on Qwen3-4B (decode vs.\ prefill, C{in}{512,2048}) shows near-identical protection lifts (ratio 0.99--1.00). At 64K, protection helps but recovery is modest; faithful per-head scoring matches full-cache ceiling on Gemma-3-4B at 6.3\% retention only when the model already supports strong 64K retrieval without eviction. Overall: protection dominates; scoring differences are secondary once boundaries are guarded; per-head allocation gives a further modest gain.

  • 1 authors
·
May 17

CompressKV: Semantic-Retrieval-Guided KV-Cache Compression for Resource-Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference

Long-context large language model (LLM) inference is increasingly constrained by the memory footprint and decoding cost of key-value (KV) caches, limiting sustainable deployment on resource-constrained hardware. Existing KV cache eviction methods typically apply heuristic token scoring over all heads in GQA-based LLMs. These methods ignore the different functionalities of attention heads, leading to the eviction of critical tokens and thus degrading the performance of LLMs. To address this issue, we propose CompressKV, a resource-efficient KV-cache compression framework for GQA-based LLMs. Instead of aggregating attention scores from all heads, CompressKV identifies Semantic Retrieval Heads (SRHs) that capture both the initial and final tokens of a prompt and semantically important mid-context evidence, and uses them to select tokens whose KV pairs should be retained. Furthermore, CompressKV allocates cache budgets across layers according to offline estimates of layer-wise eviction error. Experiments on LongBench and Needle-in-a-Haystack show that CompressKV consistently outperforms existing KV-cache eviction methods across memory budgets. Notably, it preserves over 97\% of full-cache performance using only 3\% of the KV cache on LongBench question-answering tasks and achieves 90\% accuracy with just 0.7\% KV storage on Needle-in-a-Haystack. These results demonstrate an improved resource--performance trade-off for long-context LLM inference. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/TUDa-HWAI/CompressKV

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 22

MISA: Mixture of Indexer Sparse Attention for Long-Context LLM Inference

DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA) sets the state of the art for fine-grained inference-time sparse attention by introducing a learned token-wise indexer that scores every prefix token and selects the most relevant ones for the main attention. To remain expressive, the indexer uses many query heads (for example, 64 on DeepSeek-V3.2) that share the same selected token set; this multi-head design is precisely what makes the indexer the dominant cost on long contexts. We propose MISA (Mixture of Indexer Sparse Attention), a drop-in replacement for the DSA indexer that treats its indexer heads as a pool of mixture-of-experts. A lightweight router uses cheap block-level statistics to pick a query-dependent subset of only a few active heads, and only those heads run the heavy token-level scoring. This preserves the diversity of the original indexer pool while reducing the per-query cost from scoring every prefix token with every head to scoring it with only a handful of routed heads, plus a negligible router term computed on a small set of pooled keys. We further introduce a hierarchical variant of MISA that uses the routed pass to keep an enlarged candidate set and then re-ranks it with the original DSA indexer to recover the final selected tokens almost exactly. With only eight active heads and no additional training, MISA matches the dense DSA indexer on LongBench across DeepSeek-V3.2 and GLM-5 while running with eight and four times fewer indexer heads respectively, and outperforms HISA on average. It also preserves fully green Needle-in-a-Haystack heatmaps up to a 128K-token context and recovers more than 92% of the tokens selected by the DSA indexer per layer. Our TileLang kernel delivers roughly a 3.82 times speedup over DSA's original indexer kernel on a single NVIDIA H200 GPU.

Logit-Contribution Scoring Identifies Non-Literal Retrieval Heads

In long-context use, large language models frequently synthesize answers from the meaning of a relevant context span rather than literally copy-pasting them. Identifying which attention heads perform this synthesis matters for interpreting long-context model behavior. Yet existing detectors miss these heads by construction: they reward heads whose attended token matches the generated token, a literal-copy criterion that captures where a head reads but not what it writes through its output-value (OV) circuit, the very mechanism that carries non-literal retrieval. We introduce Logit-Contribution Scoring (LOCOS), a write-aware detector that scores each head by the projection of its OV-circuit output onto the answer-token unembedding direction, contrasting needle and off-needle source positions in a single forward pass. Across three model families (Qwen3, Gemma-3, OLMo-3.1), mean-ablating the top LOCOS heads on the NoLiMa non-literal retrieval benchmark collapses ROUGE-L at lower head counts than prior attention-based detections; on Qwen3-8B, ablating 50 heads drives ROUGE-L from 0.401 to 0.000 while the strongest baseline still retains 0.292. The selected heads are retrieval-specific: parametric recall and arithmetic reasoning stay at baseline under the same ablation. On Qwen3-8B, the same ablation also drops MuSiQue from 0.55 to 0.08 and BABI-Long from 0.62 to 0.20, while a random-heads control stays within 0.05 of baseline.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 30 2

Adjudicated Captioning: Multi-Agent Alignment Scoring and Consensus-Distilled Beam Arbitration for Strict Zero-Shot Image Captioning

Zero-shot image captioning (ZIC) describes images without paired image-caption supervision during captioner training, relying on text-only corpora and frozen pretrained image-text scorers. Existing retrieval-augmented methods score image-text alignment once, at retrieval, then commit the captioner's autoregressive beam under language-model probability alone, leaving the decoder without further visual grounding feedback. Progress has stalled, with no method improving on the strict-regime best since 2024. We propose Adjudicated Captioning, an inference-time multi-agent framework that restores grounding feedback at multiple checkpoints over an unchanged IFCap captioner. First, we install a stronger frozen Retrieval Encoder at the input. Second, between retrieval and decoding we insert a frozen Cross-Attention Verifier that re-ranks the top-9 retrievals to top-5. Third, at the output beam we attach a learned Reranker pairing TriFuse, a multilayer perceptron, with MemAttend, a memory-attended transformer, the pipeline's only learned components; both are trained self-supervised by Borda-consensus distillation across the three frozen scorers, using no paired image-caption labels and no reference captions. Under the inductive headline protocol, with rerankers fit on the disjoint COCO Karpathy validation beam and applied frozen to test, the framework reaches CIDEr 117.6 and SPICE 21.9 on COCO Karpathy, up from 108.0 and 20.3 for IFCap, a +9.6 CIDEr gain, and +7.7 above NES, the strongest synthetic-image-augmented method at 109.9, without retraining the captioner. A training-free fixed-fusion baseline reaches 115.8 CIDEr, so +7.8 of the +9.6 gain comes from the non-learned architectural intervention and the remaining +1.8 from the learned rerankers. The same recipe transfers off-COCO without captioner retraining: +8.1 CIDEr on Flickr30k Karpathy and +5.7 on NoCaps overall.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 30

RCMHA: Relative Convolutional Multi-Head Attention for Natural Language Modelling

The Attention module finds common usage in language modeling, presenting distinct challenges within the broader scope of Natural Language Processing. Multi-Head Attention (MHA) employs an absolute positional encoding, which imposes limitations on token length and entails substantial memory consumption during the processing of embedded inputs. The current remedy proposed by researchers involves the utilization of relative positional encoding, similar to the approach adopted in Transformer-XL or Relative Multi-Head Attention (RMHA), albeit the employed architecture consumes considerable memory resources. To address these challenges, this study endeavors to refine MHA, leveraging relative positional encoding in conjunction with the Depth-Wise Convolutional Layer architecture, which promises heightened accuracy coupled with minimized memory usage. The proposed RCMHA framework entails the modification of two integral components: firstly, the application of the Depth-Wise Convolutional Layer to the input embedding, encompassing Query, Key, and Value parameters; secondly, the incorporation of Relative Positional Encoding into the attention scoring phase, harmoniously integrated with Scaled Dot-Product Attention. Empirical experiments underscore the advantages of RCMHA, wherein it exhibits superior accuracy, boasting a score of 0.572 in comparison to alternative attention modules such as MHA, Multi-DConv-Head Attention (MDHA), and RMHA. Concerning memory utilization, RMHA emerges as the most frugal, demonstrating an average consumption of 2.98 GB, surpassing RMHA which necessitates 3.5 GB.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 7, 2023

Graph-Based Financial Fraud Detection with Calibrated Risk Scoring and Structural Regularization

Financial transaction fraud prevention faces challenges such as complex relationship structures, concealed behavioral patterns, and dynamically changing data distribution. Discrimination models relying solely on independent sample features are insufficient to fully characterize the risks of group collaboration and chain transfers within transaction networks. This paper proposes a graph neural network representation learning and risk discrimination framework for financial transaction fraud prevention. It integrates transaction records and identity information into node attributes and constructs a transaction graph based on shared attributes and interaction consistency to explicitly model inter-transaction relationships. In model design, a multi-layer message passing mechanism is employed to aggregate neighborhood information, learn node embedding representations containing structural context semantics, and output transaction-level fraud probability and risk scores through a lightweight risk discrimination head. A weighted supervision objective is introduced to mitigate training bias caused by class imbalance, and structural consistency regularization constraints are combined to suppress the impact of noisy edges on representation drift, thereby improving the stability and usability of risk characterization. Experiments are conducted on a publicly available financial transaction dataset, comparing various methods in the same direction and comprehensively evaluating them under a unified evaluation protocol. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other methods in risk ranking and probability calibration quality, validating the effectiveness of graph structure modeling and representation learning collaboration in financial transaction fraud prevention.

  • 6 authors
·
May 11

Think, then Score: Decoupled Reasoning and Scoring for Video Reward Modeling

Recent advances in generative video models are increasingly driven by post-training and test-time scaling, both of which critically depend on the quality of video reward models (RMs). An ideal reward model should predict accurate rewards that align with human preferences across diverse scenarios. However, existing paradigms face a fundamental dilemma: Discriminative RMs regress rewards directly on features extracted by multimodal large language models (MLLMs) without explicit reasoning, making them prone to shortcut learning and heavily reliant on massive data scaling for generalization. In contrast, Generative RMs with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning exhibit superior interpretability and generalization potential, as they leverage fine-grained semantic supervision to internalize the rationales behind human preferences. However, they suffer from inherent optimization bottlenecks due to the coupling of reasoning and scoring within a single autoregressive inference chain. To harness the generalization benefits of CoT reasoning while mitigating the training instability of coupled reasoning and scoring, we introduce DeScore, a training-efficient and generalizable video reward model. DeScore employs a decoupled ``think-then-score'' paradigm: an MLLM first generates an explicit CoT, followed by a dedicated discriminative scoring module consisting of a learnable query token and a regression head that predicts the final reward. DeScore is optimized via a two-stage framework: (1) a discriminative cold start incorporating a random mask mechanism to ensure robust scoring capabilities, and (2) a dual-objective reinforcement learning stage that independently refines CoT reasoning quality and calibrates the final reward, ensuring that higher-quality reasoning directly translates to superior model performance.

  • 11 authors
·
May 6 2

Accelerating Scientific Discovery with Autonomous Goal-evolving Agents

There has been unprecedented interest in developing agents that expand the boundary of scientific discovery, primarily by optimizing quantitative objective functions specified by scientists. However, for grand challenges in science, these objectives may only be imperfect proxies. We argue that automating objective function design is a central, yet unmet need for scientific discovery agents. In this work, we introduce the Scientific Autonomous Goal-evolving Agent (SAGA) to address this challenge. SAGA employs a bi-level architecture in which an outer loop of LLM agents analyzes optimization outcomes, proposes new objectives, and converts them into computable scoring functions, while an inner loop performs solution optimization under the current objectives. This bi-level design enables systematic exploration of the space of objectives and their trade-offs, rather than treating them as fixed inputs. We demonstrate the framework through a wide range of design applications, including antibiotics, nanobodies, functional DNA sequences, inorganic materials, and chemical processes. Notably, our experimental validation identifies a structurally novel hit with promising potency and safety profiles for E. coli in the antibiotic design task, and three de novo PD-L1 binders in the nanobody design task. These results suggest that automating objective formulation can substantially improve the effectiveness of scientific discovery agents.

  • 28 authors
·
Mar 29

MuViSeg: Multi-View Segment Correspondences from Dense Geometry Priors

Classical image correspondence is solved at the level of sparse keypoints or dense pixels, but the systems that consume these matches - object-level mapping, topological navigation, scene-graph maintenance - reason about whole objects. Recent work narrows this gap by matchng directly at the level of instance segments: a class-agnostic segmenter partitions each image, and per-segment descriptors are obtained by pooling features from large 3D foundation models over the masks. We build on this segment-level matching paradigm and propose three learned matching heads: a LightGlue-style attention head with DoubleSoftmax scoring on frozen MASt3R descriptors; a DPT-style multi-scale fusion module that exposes layered spatial detail from the VGGT foundation model before pooling; and - as our main contribution - a multi-view extension that performs joint self-attention over segments drawn from several views at once, recovering transitive correspondences that strictly pairwise matchers cannot reach. Under a stratified zero-shot protocol on Replica and Virtual KITTI 2 with controlled viewpoint baselines from 0 deg to 180 deg, the LightGlue-style head improves over a parameter-free Sinkhorn matcher on the same MASt3R backbone by +4.85 AUPRC on Replica and +25.9 AUPRC on Virtual KITTI 2. Dropped into the RoboHop topological navigation pipeline on the Habitat-Matterport 3D (HM3D) Instance Image Navigation benchmark without retraining, our multi-view variant raises success rate from 50% to 70%, and our LightGlue-style head raises SPL from 45.7 to 59.1.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 19

Unsupervised Multimodal Reward Modeling

Vision-language reward models are trained on annotated preference pairs, which are expensive to collect, can disagree, and are ranked by benchmark accuracy. We build one with no human preference label: a linear head on an intermediate layer of a frozen Qwen3-VL backbone, trained to score a web caption above a perturbed version of the same caption; labeled data enters only to select the layer. The layer is the decisive choice, worth 5.8 points over the last layer, and one recipe transferred without re-tuning beats or at least matches GPT-4o on three benchmarks at 32B, 6.6 points ahead on VL-RewardBench, from a few thousand parameters at about a thousandth of fine-tuning compute. At an equal pair budget, perturbations teach a frozen head 3 to 5 points more than curated RLAIF-V pairs. Because the backbone is frozen, the objective is convex, and the perturbation sampler specifies the reward, which the benchmark does not identify: two heads trained on disjoint halves of the same perturbations tie on the benchmark and differ by 6.4 points in hallucination judging. Retraining the head on the policy's own verifier-labeled candidates cuts caption hallucination by 5.1 CHAIR points and lifts image-generation pass rate by 5.4, while scoring lower on every reward benchmark. Together, an intermediate-layer probe, free same-image perturbations, and a verifier-driven bootstrap turn give a recipe for multimodal reward modeling that needs no annotator, costs a fraction of fine-tuning, and is specified by the comparisons it is trained on rather than by a benchmark rank.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 7

AudioJev: Direct Audio Decisions with Order-Calibrated Probabilities

Audio decisions often depend on evidence that a transcript does not preserve, while their probability estimates can depend on how answer options are ordered. AudioJev maps a waveform, question and supplied alternatives directly to a candidate distribution through one shared full-parameter model. We define order calibration as preserving an answer's probability under meaning-preserving option permutations. Random-derangement SKL training pairs each question with a reordered view in which every alternative changes position, supervises both answers, and aligns the two distributions before applying a symmetric KL penalty. Inference retains a single candidate-scoring forward, with no calibration head or order ensemble. Across three training seeds, AudioJev reaches 68.88%/55.33% mean accuracy on complete MMAU/MMAR and reduces random-order SKL by 43.8%/60.5% relative to the single-view removal ablation. The same model handles intent, environmental sound, note properties, speech activity and conversational transitions. Paired removal ablations and multi-order evaluation measure predictive accuracy and probability stability together, establishing a direct audio interface whose calibration objective acts on candidate meaning rather than presentation position. Inference code and model weights are available at https://github.com/SihanLv/AudioJev-Inference and https://huggingface.co/shlv/AudioJev.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 30

Qwen-Audio-Jev: A Unified Interface for Audio Decisions

Large audio language models (LALMs) have made substantial progress in audio understanding. However, in high-throughput applications requiring frequent selection, judgment, and scoring, autoregressive text generation introduces additional computational overhead and response latency. To address this limitation, we introduce Qwen-Audio-Jev by augmenting Qwen-Audio-3.1-ASR-Flash-Next with a dedicated Jev decision head. The model unifies selection, binary judgment, and scoring through three decision primitives: CHOICE, NOUL, and SCORE. Given audio, a natural-language question, and an explicit answer specification, it directly produces a task-conditioned probability distribution or a numerical score through typed decision readouts. Evaluation across 18 labeled configurations covers all three primitives: for CHOICE, Qwen-Audio-Jev achieves accuracies of 78.70% on MMAU-mini and 84.06% on MMSU; for NOUL, it achieves an equal error rate of 6.50% on the VoxCeleb1-O speaker verification benchmark; and for SCORE, the model achieves a normalized mean absolute error of 0.1062 on NISQA overall quality assessment, with Pearson and Spearman correlations of 0.8210 and 0.8074, respectively. Compared with the original Qwen-Audio-3.1-ASR-Flash-Next, Qwen-Audio-Jev achieves an approximately 20x inference speedup. It demonstrates its potential for efficient, high-throughput audio decision-making in applications such as large-scale audio screening, speaker verification, and automated quality assessment.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 14

Rethinking Personalized Generation: Test-Time Alignment via Factorized Ranking Models

Aligning large language models (LLMs) to diverse user preferences is fundamentally hindered by standard alignment paradigms that optimize for monolithic users. In this work, empirical studies are first used to reveal the existence of a massive, untapped performance headroom for personalized generation through test-time alignment. We demonstrate that personalized generation is uniquely suited for test-time scaling methods like Best-of-N (BoN) because it can be viewed primarily as a candidate matching problem rather than a generator capability bottleneck. While reward models could in principle exploit this headroom, they are poorly calibrated for personalization, and their billion-parameter scale makes scoring large candidate pools prohibitively expensive. To overcome this limitation, we propose a parameter-efficient framework utilizing million-parameter scale multi-layer perceptron (MLP) ranking models. Our personalized ranking model directly reuses the internal embeddings of the base generator with minimal overhead. By scaling train-time data to provide fine-grained personalized preferences, this million-parameter ranking model accurately scores large candidate pools and can seamlessly guide generation to reduce the cost of materializing N candidates. Extensive experiments on nine datasets spanning three personalized generation settings show that our personalized ranking model effectively exploits the discovered headroom, outperforming billion-parameter generalist reward models on every dataset, with under 0.4% of their parameters and four orders of magnitude lower scoring latency.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 27

Adaptive Sparse ViT: Towards Learnable Adaptive Token Pruning by Fully Exploiting Self-Attention

Vision transformer has emerged as a new paradigm in computer vision, showing excellent performance while accompanied by expensive computational cost. Image token pruning is one of the main approaches for ViT compression, due to the facts that the complexity is quadratic with respect to the token number, and many tokens containing only background regions do not truly contribute to the final prediction. Existing works either rely on additional modules to score the importance of individual tokens, or implement a fixed ratio pruning strategy for different input instances. In this work, we propose an adaptive sparse token pruning framework with a minimal cost. Specifically, we firstly propose an inexpensive attention head importance weighted class attention scoring mechanism. Then, learnable parameters are inserted as thresholds to distinguish informative tokens from unimportant ones. By comparing token attention scores and thresholds, we can discard useless tokens hierarchically and thus accelerate inference. The learnable thresholds are optimized in budget-aware training to balance accuracy and complexity, performing the corresponding pruning configurations for different input instances. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Our method improves the throughput of DeiT-S by 50% and brings only 0.2% drop in top-1 accuracy, which achieves a better trade-off between accuracy and latency than the previous methods.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

Conditional Memory Enhanced Item Representation for Generative Recommendation

Generative recommendation (GR) has emerged as a promising paradigm that predicts target items by autoregressively generating their semantic identifiers (SID). Most GR methods follow a quantization-representation-generation pipeline, first assigning each item a SID, then constructing input representations from SID-token embeddings, and finally predicting the target SID through autoregressive generation. Existing item-level representation constructions mainly take two forms: directly merging SID-token embeddings into a compact vector, or enriching item-level representations with external inputs through additional networks. However, these item-level constructors still expose two practical challenges: direct merging may amplify the information loss caused by quantization and ID collision while obscuring SID code relations, whereas external-input-based methods can strengthen item semantics but cannot reliably preserve the SID-structured evidence required for token-level generation. These limitations make representation construction an underexplored bottleneck, leading to two severe problems, the Identity-Structure Preservation Conflict and Input-Output Granularity Mismatch. To this end, we propose ComeIR, a Conditional Memory enhanced Item Representation framework that reconstructs SID-token embeddings into item-aware inputs and restores the token granularity during SID decoding. Specifically, MM-guided token scoring adaptively estimates the contribution of each code within the SID, dual-level Engram memory captures intra-item code composition and inter-item transition patterns, and a memory-restoring prediction head reuses the memories during SID decoding. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of ComeIR, and further reveal scalable gains from enlarging conditional memory.

  • 5 authors
·
May 11

Make Each Token Count: Towards Improving Long-Context Performance with KV Cache Eviction

The key-value (KV) cache is a major bottleneck in long-context inference, where memory and computation grow with sequence length. Existing KV eviction methods reduce this cost but typically degrade performance relative to full-cache inference. Our key insight is that full-cache attention is not always optimal: in long contexts, irrelevant tokens can dilute attention away from useful evidence, so selective, learnable eviction can improve generation rather than merely approximate the full cache. We introduce a global retention-based KV eviction method that learns each token's future utility under a unified memory budget. Lightweight retention gates assign utility scores to cached KV entries, and a shared final scoring projection calibrates these scores across all layers and heads. This enables a single global eviction policy in which tokens from different layers, heads, and modalities compete directly for cache capacity. We further provide theoretical analysis showing that preferentially retaining useful tokens reduces attention dilution, and we justify geometric retention as a query-agnostic proxy for future utility. Across diverse long-context language and vision-language reasoning, and multi-turn dialogue benchmarks, our method substantially reduces KV memory while matching or surpassing full-cache inference. These results suggest that learned, globally calibrated KV eviction is not only a compression technique, but also a mechanism for improving long-context reasoning.

RouteBalance: Fused Model Routing and Load Balancing for Heterogeneous LLM Serving

Heterogeneous LLM serving stacks split scheduling into two layers that optimize in isolation: model routers pick a model from quality and cost signals while ignoring instance load, and serving load balancers optimize queues while ignoring quality. We present RouteBalance, a serving-aware scheduling layer that fuses both into a single online assignment over concrete model instances, jointly trading off quality, latency, and cost. A batched in-process predictor stack and dead-reckoned instance state keep the joint decision cheap on the request hot path (approx32 ms at 12 req/s). On a 13-instance, 28-GPU heterogeneous cluster serving four model sizes, a single deployed RouteBalance stack traces the upper region of the three-way quality-cost-throughput frontier. Sweeping one weight vector reaches both the highest routing-decision quality (DeepEval 0.419, +0.013 over the strongest baseline, 95% CI [{+}0.005,{+}0.022]; the ordering holds when a second judge re-scores the actually served text) and, at its cost-priority corner, per-request cost that ties the cheapest baseline. With router engineering equalized against concurrent-scoring baseline variants we build, its balanced preset serves at 2.8 s and 30 req/s, leading 2.6 to 4.1times ahead of enhanced BEST-Route at high load. (Deploying those routers as published, one serial scoring call per request, makes them collapse 23times under load, a deployment-architecture effect we isolate separately, not the routing result.) A four-arm isolation shows the benefit follows from pricing latency at model-selection time; the learned predictors contribute calibration and SLO headroom rather than the headline frontier. Code: https://github.com/AKafakA/route-balance

  • 2 authors
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Jun 15

Multi-Objective Task-Aware Predictor for Image-Text Alignment

Evaluating image-text alignment while reflecting human preferences across multiple aspects is a significant issue for the development of reliable vision-language applications. It becomes especially crucial in real-world scenarios where multiple valid descriptions exist depending on contexts or user needs. However, research progress is hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks and existing evaluation predictors lacking at least one of these key properties: (1) Alignment with human judgments, (2) Long-sequence processing, (3) Inference efficiency, and (4) Applicability to multi-objective scoring. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-and-play architecture to build a robust predictor, MULTI-TAP (Multi-Objective Task-Aware Predictor), capable of both multi and single-objective scoring. MULTI-TAP can produce a single overall score, utilizing a reward head built on top of a large vision-language model (LVLMs). We show that MULTI-TAP is robust in terms of application to different LVLM architectures, achieving significantly higher performance than existing metrics and even on par with the GPT-4o-based predictor, G-VEval, with a smaller size (7-8B). By training a lightweight ridge regression layer on the frozen hidden states of a pre-trained LVLM, MULTI-TAP can produce fine-grained scores for multiple human-interpretable objectives. MULTI-TAP performs better than VisionREWARD, a high-performing multi-objective reward model, in both performance and efficiency on multi-objective benchmarks and our newly released text-image-to-text dataset, EYE4ALL. Our new dataset, consisting of chosen/rejected human preferences (EYE4ALLPref) and human-annotated fine-grained scores across seven dimensions (EYE4ALLMulti), can serve as a foundation for developing more accessible AI systems by capturing the underlying preferences of users, including blind and low-vision (BLV) individuals.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025

Diagnose, Localize, Align: A Full-Stack Framework for Reliable LLM Multi-Agent Systems under Instruction Conflicts

Large Language Model (LLM)-powered multi-agent systems (MAS) have rapidly advanced collaborative reasoning, tool use, and role-specialized coordination in complex tasks. However, reliability-critical deployment remains hindered by a systemic failure mode: hierarchical compliance under instruction conflicts (system-user, peer-peer), where agents misprioritize system-level rules in the presence of competing demands. Moreover, widely used macro-level metrics (e.g., pass@k) obscure these micro-level violations and offer little actionable guidance for remedy. In this work, we present a full-stack, three-stage framework: (1) Diagnose - Contextualized Role Adherence Score (CRAS), a query-wise, context-aware scoring metric that decomposes role adherence into four measurable dimensions; (2) Localize - attention drift analysis revealing that instruction conflicts are resolved by attention heads that are largely concentrated in middle layers; (3) Align - Surgical Alignment of Instruction Layers (SAIL), which installs LoRA only on the localized focal layers and optimizes a token-weighted DPO-style preference objective that credits tokens by their focal attentional contribution. Across standard benchmarks and MAS frameworks, our surgical approach improves instruction hierarchy compliance (e.g., +5.60% with AutoGen on MedQA) without full-model finetuning.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 27, 2025

Online Information Acquisition: Hiring Multiple Agents

We investigate the mechanism design problem faced by a principal who hires multiple agents to gather and report costly information. Then, the principal exploits the information to make an informed decision. We model this problem as a game, where the principal announces a mechanism consisting in action recommendations and a payment function, a.k.a. scoring rule. Then, each agent chooses an effort level and receives partial information about an underlying state of nature based on the effort. Finally, the agents report the information (possibly non-truthfully), the principal takes a decision based on this information, and the agents are paid according to the scoring rule. While previous work focuses on single-agent problems, we consider multi-agents settings. This poses the challenge of coordinating the agents' efforts and aggregating correlated information. Indeed, we show that optimal mechanisms must correlate agents' efforts, which introduces externalities among the agents, and hence complex incentive compatibility constraints and equilibrium selection problems. First, we design a polynomial-time algorithm to find an optimal incentive compatible mechanism. Then, we study an online problem, where the principal repeatedly interacts with a group of unknown agents. We design a no-regret algorithm that provides mathcal{O}(T^{2/3}) regret with respect to an optimal mechanism, matching the state-of-the-art bound for single-agent settings.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 12, 2023 1

AI World Cup 2026: Benchmarking Large Language Models for End-to-End Football Tournament Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

  • 2 authors
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Aug 3

KWBench: Measuring Unprompted Problem Recognition in Knowledge Work

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

clio-ai Clio AI
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Apr 16 2

An analytical framework for the Levine hats problem: new strategies, bounds and generalizations

We study the Levine hat problem, a classic combinatorial puzzle introduced by Lionel Levine in 2010. This problem involves a game in which n geq 2 players, each seeing an infinite stack of hats on each of their teammates' heads but not on their own, must simultaneously guess the index of a black hat on their own stack. If one of the players fails to do so, the team loses collectively. The players must therefore come up with a good strategy before the game starts. While the optimal winning probability V_{n} remains unknown even for n=2, we make three key advances. First, we develop a novel geometric framework for representing strategies through measurable functions, providing a new expression of V_{n} and a unified treatment of the game for finite and for infinite stacks via integral formulations. Secondly, we construct a new strategy K_{5} that reaches the conjectured optimal probability of victory : 0.35. We also show that K_{5} is part of a larger class of strategies that allow us to improve current bounds and resolve conjectured inequalities. Finally, we introduce and entirely solve a continuous generalization of the problem, demonstrating that extending to uncountable hat stacks increases the optimal winning probability to exactly 1/2. This generalization naturally leads to a broader and smoother strategic framework, within which we also describe how to compute optimal responses to a range of strategies.

  • 5 authors
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Aug 3, 2025

Does RoPE Prevent or Degrade Retrieval Heads? A Mechanistic Analysis Across Model Families

Retrieval heads, attention heads that copy information from earlier context to the current position, have been proposed as the mechanistic substrate for long-context recall. Rotary position embeddings (RoPE) rotate queries and keys by frequencies decaying with a base hyperparameter theta, and a natural hypothesis is that this rotation either prevents retrieval heads from forming or degrades their function. We test both across four open-weight 7-8B models spanning multi-head and grouped-query attention and a 100x range of theta, using paired-seed needle-in-a-haystack tests, layer-clustered permutation, and causal head-masking. (i) Retrieval heads are causally necessary: masking the 87 detected heads in OLMo-2 collapses recall from 1.00 to 0.00, while masking matched random heads has no effect; this replicates in Qwen. (ii) Higher theta does not reduce retrieval-head count (LLaMA-3.1 at theta=500K has 47 heads vs LLaMA-2 at theta=10K with 42), refuting the prevention hypothesis. (iii) The norm-utility relation is family-specific and significant in opposite directions (Qwen d=-0.49, OLMo d=+0.50, both significant; LLaMA null); since OLMo and LLaMA-3.1 share theta=500K yet differ, the effect is not theta-driven. (iv) Building on Chiang and Yogatama (2025), a controlled patch shows that zeroing the lowest-frequency RoPE dimensions of retrieval heads degrades recall dose-dependently (1.00 to 0.18 when 32 of 128 dimensions are zeroed, vs 0.98 for random dimensions); the effect is head-specific and task-specific. The causal variable is RoPE frequency, not norm-utility. The direction holds in all five models patched (OLMo-2, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, Gemma-2, Mistral) across four lineages and two scales. We do not claim cross-model magnitude. Code and a paired-seed harness are released.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 18

WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament

Benchmarks that measure the forecasting ability of large language models are almost always retrospective: the event has happened, the answer is somewhere on the Web, and the evaluation must defend itself against memorisation. We report the opposite design. Over the 39 days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, six frontier LLMs -- all with extended thinking and native server-side web search -- were asked before every kickoff, one match at a time, to fill in a seven-market prediction card for all 104 matches, plus 12 group winners and a pre-tournament outright pool; no answer existed when the question was asked, so the evaluation is leakage-free by construction rather than by filtering, and the frozen archive holds 4,494 scored predictions. What the tournament establishes is a set of behaviours the six systems share. On match outcome they average 63.9%, level with backing the bookmaker's favourite -- which is in fact what they usually do. They agree with one another far more often than they are right, so a majority vote adds nothing. They under-commit to draws and to goals, and crowd their scoreline picks onto a single prototypical result. Accuracy tracks how lopsided a fixture is rather than how much is known about it: it collapses in the closest ties, where the dossiers are richest, while questions about the tournament as a whole are answered well. On this task the current generation of frontier systems is not sharply differentiated: the standings hold up at the top and the bottom across the run and churn in the middle, and the margins stay narrow throughout. The briefing dossiers, fixtures and official results are released as a benchmark, together with the scoring code.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 3

HarvestBench: Measuring Whether LLM Agents Will Pay to Avoid Killing Animals

Benchmarks for the side effects an agent causes on the way to a goal already exist, but HarvestBench is the first to put a price on avoiding the side effect and to name that side effect as a living creature. It is a farm simulation: LLM sub-agents drive a crew of two tractors through a cooperative corn harvest, with animals in the field. The environment is a reinforcement learning gridworld, every decision is made without memory, and the harm is never named in the goal. When an animal blocks a tractor's route the autopilot stops and asks the model whether to drive on, at no fuel cost, or swerve around it for a posted fuel price. Kills are compared against two controls: rocks, which damage the tractor and are hit under 1% of the time by every model, and hay bales, which are harmless and not alive. Models can also take crops from the neighbor's field instead of their own, a second test of what they treat as moral. Across nine models and 7,201 priced decisions, 3,951 involved an animal rather than a hay bale or a rock. Kill rates range from 0.4% to 98.8%, with Terra and Sol the most merciful and GPT-4o-mini the most cruel, and they are not ordered by capability. Four of six models were sensitive to price at the 5% level, with elasticities from 0.09 to 1.69. All nine drove over wild animals more often than farmed animals on the default map, and the direction held at every map geometry in every model with room to move. The briefing mattered most: under the morality briefing the kill rate was under 6% in five of six reasoning models, and removing it raised the kill rate above 84% in all six. HarvestBench uses no LLM grader. The scorer counts events in the game log, so it is fully reproducible, and it measures what a model will pay to avoid harm rather than what it says about harm.

BITEM at the NTCIR-19 R2C2 Task: Predicting Confidence from Agentic RAG Pipeline Signals

The BITEM team entered both subtasks of the NTCIR-19 R2C2 task with a single agentic pipeline, in which a model searches, reads and records evidence over a movie corpus while an orchestrator holds the record and rules on what may be submitted. A claim is admitted only once an entailment cascade has checked it against the passage it cites, and an answer is released only once enough checked evidence stands behind it. Each question is run three or four times, every pass retrieving from a corpus stripped of what the earlier passes have already seen. The confidence filed with each answer is computed by the orchestrator from what the run leaves behind and is never asked of the model, which is offered no way to rate itself. The two retrieval runs placed 4th and 5th of 22, pooling the passes was worth 0.0709 nDCG@20, and the gain was largest on the multi-hop and post-processing-heavy questions, where the organisers rank the pooled run top of the field. Sixteen of the 25 answer runs were built on passages these two runs supplied, 12 of them filed by other teams. HMR rewards a system whose confidence is high where it answers right and low where it answers wrong. The pipeline reached an accuracy of 0.9219, 6th of 25, while the confidence filed with those answers gave an HMR of 0.4915, 13th. A few rules crafted over those same recorded signals, with no further model call and no further retrieval, raise that to an accuracy of 0.9375, 5th, and an HMR of 0.6985, 9th. Ranking on HMR alone can reward a system for answering wrongly with low confidence, so we propose accHMR, the accuracy multiplied by HMR, which reports the reward in proportion to the accuracy, and on which the revised rules would have scored 0.6549, 5th. For future work, fitting a model on the numbers the pipeline already produces, rather than writing such rules by hand, would be a real step forward.

  • 6 authors
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Sep 28

Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 18, 2024

Verification Without Sufficiency: Per-Chunk Filtering Fails on Multi-Hop RAG, and Decomposition Repairs It

Verification for retrieval-augmented generation usually scores each retrieved chunk and drops the ones that fail. We show this cannot work for multi-hop questions, and show what does. Per-chunk scoring assumes one chunk is a sufficient premise for the answer. Multi-hop questions are built so that none is, and the paragraph carrying the answer is the one the question does not name. Entailment scoring reaches 0.643, 0.523 and 0.560 AUC on HotpotQA, 2WikiMultihopQA and MuSiQue, against 0.951 on single-hop SQuAD. Seven controls rule out model capacity, premise length, hypothesis template, decision threshold, retriever, answer-matching criterion and prompt. End to end across three datasets, three generator sizes and two prompts, per-chunk gating is significantly worse than not filtering at all in every cell, and its penalty grows with generator capability. The repair is to condition verification on the decomposed sub-question rather than the original query. Using MuSiQue's gold decomposition, entailment on a later hop rises from 0.546, which is chance, to 0.840, a paired lift of +0.355 with a bootstrap interval of [0.331, 0.382]. An off-the-shelf Qwen2.5-7B decomposer, given the question and the top retrieved paragraph, reaches 0.637 and captures 31% of that ceiling; decomposing without retrieval reaches 0.533, below the original question. Iterative retrieval systems already produce such decompositions and discard them before verifying.

  • 1 authors
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Jul 31

ADIEE: Automatic Dataset Creation and Scorer for Instruction-Guided Image Editing Evaluation

Recent advances in instruction-guided image editing underscore the need for effective automated evaluation. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been explored as judges, open-source models struggle with alignment, and proprietary models lack transparency and cost efficiency. Additionally, no public training datasets exist to fine-tune open-source VLMs, only small benchmarks with diverse evaluation schemes. To address this, we introduce ADIEE, an automated dataset creation approach which is then used to train a scoring model for instruction-guided image editing evaluation. We generate a large-scale dataset with over 100K samples and use it to fine-tune a LLaVA-NeXT-8B model modified to decode a numeric score from a custom token. The resulting scorer outperforms all open-source VLMs and Gemini-Pro 1.5 across all benchmarks, achieving a 0.0696 (+17.24%) gain in score correlation with human ratings on AURORA-Bench, and improving pair-wise comparison accuracy by 4.03% (+7.21%) on GenAI-Bench and 4.75% (+9.35%) on AURORA-Bench, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art. The scorer can act as a reward model, enabling automated best edit selection and model fine-tuning. Notably, the proposed scorer can boost MagicBrush model's average evaluation score on ImagenHub from 5.90 to 6.43 (+8.98%). Our code and models are available at https://github.com/SherryXTChen/ADIEE.git.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 9, 2025

FM-Bench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Management with Competing Agents

Language model agents now execute bounded tasks reliably. Whether they can sustain effective decision-making over long horizons, where actions have cumulative consequences and the environment responds to their choices, remains largely unmeasured. FM-Bench (Football Management Benchmark) measures this. An LLM agent runs a football club for 20 in-game years through 26 tools and roughly 340 to 400 decision stops. It drafts a squad on the same budget as every rival, trades players, negotiates contracts, invests in facilities and youth, sets lineups, and answers to a board that can fire it, while a deterministic engine accumulates every year into one final score with no LLM judge or human rater. The solo track plays each of 15 frontier models against a frozen scripted world, and the Arena places the same models plus a scripted anchor in one shared 20-year world; to our knowledge, the first head-to-head evaluation at this scale. We measure six behavioral capabilities behind the score. Across three seeds, all 15 models complete every horizon while the blind scripted baselines die out in most of theirs, and claude-fable-5 tops the solo board on mean score and the Arena, where the title nonetheless rotates among ten models. Neither scale, price, nor vendor predicts the order; the order settles only late in the horizon, and the best first-play human lands only at the bottom of the model board. What separates the models is managerial behavior rather than computation. Higher-scoring models reduce slow-payoff investment near the end, keep cash invested rather than idle, and open renewals well before the deadline, while token spend predicts nothing. No model learns the market's hidden prices from hundreds of rejected bids, and self-managed memory fails in two opposite modes: an archive that only grows or a plan rewritten every season. Code is available at https://github.com/Analogy-AI/fm-bench.

  • 9 authors
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Aug 18 1

Rethinking Evaluation Metric for Probability Estimation Models Using Esports Data

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 12, 2023

WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting

Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available. We present WorldCupArena, a dynamic benchmark for language models and deep-research agents. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is its first evaluation, and the same process can be reused for future leagues and cups. Before each match, a model either receives a common evidence package or searches for information itself. It predicts the result and score, likely players and events, match statistics, and the outcome of the competition. After the match, these predictions are compared with the recorded result. We report result accuracy, exact-score accuracy, and a scoreline score that gives some credit when a predicted score is close but not exact, together with scores for the other prediction tasks. Across 104 matches and 13 systems, models with similar result accuracy differ more clearly on detailed predictions. Compared with betting-market and human-fan baselines, the best system shows only small gains in result and exact-score accuracy, but a clearer gain in Scoreline. New schedules can be added as they begin, allowing the benchmark to evaluate future models without using outcomes that are already known. Code, prompts, predictions, and evaluation scripts are open sourced at https://github.com/wzk1015/WorldCupArena.

  • 6 authors
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Jul 19 2

Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

Kepler: Auditable World Models for ARC-AGI-3

ARC-AGI-3 evaluates agents in interactive environments whose rules and objectives must be inferred from observation. We present Kepler, an open-source harness that represents hypotheses as executable world models and validates them through retrospective transition checks and conditional prediction checks. Under one frozen Claude Opus 5 configuration, Kepler obtained a server-verified 100.00 RHAE on all 25 public games, with no per-game model selection or score-conditioned reruns. On 181 of 183 completed levels, the final Opus attempt used no more actions than the corresponding median-human baseline. The retained board runs used 8,256 environment actions, of which 7,292 occurred in scored levels. Retained local provider-session records yield 858.0 million tokens, 97.37% cache reads, and a \$777.72 cost at September 1, 2026 API list-equivalent rates. We also report three evaluation failures: source-code leakage that produced an invalid perfect run, agents reconstructing a removed harness in a control condition, and autonomous repair masking a broken planner. A single-game observation case study showed that animation frames contained task-relevant information absent from settled text grids. Across the final Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol boards, 48 of 50 game-model cells reached 100. These results indicate that public-set score alone has limited discriminative value and motivate first-attempt, cost-conditioned, and verification-aware reporting.

  • 1 authors
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Sep 29

Likelihood Is Not Authorship: Can We Reliably Measure Human Contribution in AI-Assisted Writing?

AI-text detection generally asks whether a machine wrote a text. As AI becomes an increasingly integral and accepted part of writing, the more relevant question is no longer whether AI was used, but how much of the text reflects human contribution. A prominent line of work estimates this by measuring how predictive a person's prompt is of the final text. We show that this measure can be easily manipulated. We introduce SPECIFICITY PADDING that simply asks the model to copy a few random IDs from the prompt, and that alone makes a title-only request look more human than one that supplies the article's key ideas. A context-swap audit then holds each document fixed, and only shows or hides the IDs to the evaluator. The score of the unchanged text swings by a third to half of its scale, and it rises for every document we test, on news and scientific abstracts, across varied LLMs from 3.8B to 753B parameters. The same articles can average 85\% human or 15\% human depending only on which prompt is on record, and even with no prompt at all, the output-only variant rewards the random strings themselves. An exact identity, the credit ledger, explains why. The score is a surprisal-weighted average over the text, so rare strings that the context makes copyable collect the credit, whatever they mean. A two-point bound marks a deeper limit. If the prompt could have been machine-written, every transcript-only method must, in the worst case, miss by half the contribution at stake. Likelihood-based scores alone cannot reliably establish human contribution without evidence of what the person added and how the text was produced.

  • 3 authors
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Oct 13

Memory Reward Inflation in Self-Improving LLM Agents

Self-improving LLM agents increasingly learn from experience without updating any weights. Each episode is stored in an external memory, scored, and retrieved for similar future tasks to shape later behavior. Viewed through a reward lens, the stored score is a proxy reward for an implicit, non-parametric policy. Each retrieved episode then becomes a policy-improvement step whose reliability hinges on how that score is produced. In deployment, ground-truth labels are unavailable, so the stored reward is at best an LLM assessment. This substitution creates a failure mode, the *Echo Gap*, across the memory-based self-improving agents and model families studied. Incorrect episodes receive inflated rewards; thus, the agent preferentially reuses the very mistakes it has most confident in. Because the error compounds through memory rather than averaging out and the confirming judge's errors remain correlated with the original self-grading bias, so it cannot identify which memories are overvalued. The missing property is formalized as the *Error-Independence Assumption* (EIA), which we prove is a *necessary* condition for correcting the inflation, not merely a description of a good verifier: a usable signal must track truth *and* decorrelate its error from the memory bias, and the recoverable payoff is a closed-form function of exactly those two quantities. We further show the inflation compounds not only when retrieval ranks by the stored score but also under plain similarity retrieval which is the regime the deployed agent uses. Finally, the answer-free de-inflation algorithm LUCID delivers a consistent end-to-end gain on the BIRD text-to-SQL benchmark. It raises execution accuracy to 56.9%, above both a Memento-style self-graded agent (54.0%, a +2.9-point mean gain across seeds) and a memory-less agent of identical architecture (52.4%).

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 28

Verification of GossipSub in ACL2s

GossipSub is a popular new peer-to-peer network protocol designed to disseminate messages quickly and efficiently by allowing peers to forward the full content of messages only to a dynamically selected subset of their neighboring peers (mesh neighbors) while gossiping about messages they have seen with the rest. Peers decide which of their neighbors to graft or prune from their mesh locally and periodically using a score for each neighbor. Scores are calculated using a score function that depends on mesh-specific parameters, weights and counters relating to a peer's performance in the network. Since a GossipSub network's performance ultimately depends on the performance of its peers, an important question arises: Is the score calculation mechanism effective in weeding out non-performing or even intentionally misbehaving peers from meshes? We answered this question in the negative in our companion paper by reasoning about GossipSub using our formal, official and executable ACL2s model. Based on our findings, we synthesized and simulated attacks against GossipSub which were confirmed by the developers of GossipSub, FileCoin, and Eth2.0, and publicly disclosed in MITRE CVE-2022-47547. In this paper, we present a detailed description of our model. We discuss design decisions, security properties of GossipSub, reasoning about the security properties in context of our model, attack generation and lessons we learnt when writing it.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 15, 2023

HelpSteer2-Preference: Complementing Ratings with Preferences

Reward models are critical for aligning models to follow instructions, and are typically trained following one of two popular paradigms: Bradley-Terry style or Regression style. However, there is a lack of evidence that either approach is better than the other, when adequately matched for data. This is primarily because these approaches require data collected in different (but incompatible) formats, meaning that adequately matched data is not available in existing public datasets. To tackle this problem, we release preference annotations (designed for Bradley-Terry training) to complement existing ratings (designed for Regression style training) in the HelpSteer2 dataset. To improve data interpretability, preference annotations are accompanied with human-written justifications. Using this data, we conduct the first head-to-head comparison of Bradley-Terry and Regression models when adequately matched for data. Based on insights derived from such a comparison, we propose a novel approach to combine Bradley-Terry and Regression reward modeling. A Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct model tuned with this approach scores 94.1 on RewardBench, emerging top of more than 140 reward models as of 1 Oct 2024. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of this reward model at aligning models to follow instructions in RLHF. We open-source this dataset (CC-BY-4.0 license) at https://huggingface.co/datasets/nvidia/HelpSteer2 and openly release the trained Reward Model at https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Llama-3.1-Nemotron-70B-Reward

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 2, 2024 5

Theoretical Challenges in Learning for Branch-and-Cut

Machine learning is increasingly used to guide branch-and-cut (B&C) for mixed-integer linear programming by learning score-based policies for selecting branching variables and cutting planes. Many approaches train on local signals from lookahead heuristics such as strong branching, and linear programming (LP) bound improvement for cut selection. Training and evaluation of the learned models often focus on local score accuracy. We show that such local score-based methods can lead to search trees exponentially larger than optimal tree sizes, by identifying two sources of this gap. The first is that these widely used expert signals can be misaligned with overall tree size. LP bound improvement can select a root cut set that yields an exponentially larger strong branching tree than selecting cuts by a simple proxy score, and strong branching itself can be exponentially suboptimal (Dey et al., 2024). The second is that small discrepancies can be amplified by the branch-and-bound recursion. An arbitrarily small perturbation of the right-hand sides in a root cut set can change the minimum tree size from a single node to exponentially many. For branching, arbitrarily small score discrepancies, and differences only in tie-breaking, can produce trees of exponentially different sizes, and even a small number of decision differences along a trajectory can incur exponential growth. These results show that branch-and-cut policies trained and learned using local expert scores do not guarantee small trees, thus motivating the study of data-driven methods that produce policies better aligned with tree size rather than only accuracy on expert scores.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 29

Characterizing Mechanisms for Factual Recall in Language Models

Language Models (LMs) often must integrate facts they memorized in pretraining with new information that appears in a given context. These two sources can disagree, causing competition within the model, and it is unclear how an LM will resolve the conflict. On a dataset that queries for knowledge of world capitals, we investigate both distributional and mechanistic determinants of LM behavior in such situations. Specifically, we measure the proportion of the time an LM will use a counterfactual prefix (e.g., "The capital of Poland is London") to overwrite what it learned in pretraining ("Warsaw"). On Pythia and GPT2, the training frequency of both the query country ("Poland") and the in-context city ("London") highly affect the models' likelihood of using the counterfactual. We then use head attribution to identify individual attention heads that either promote the memorized answer or the in-context answer in the logits. By scaling up or down the value vector of these heads, we can control the likelihood of using the in-context answer on new data. This method can increase the rate of generating the in-context answer to 88\% of the time simply by scaling a single head at runtime. Our work contributes to a body of evidence showing that we can often localize model behaviors to specific components and provides a proof of concept for how future methods might control model behavior dynamically at runtime.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 24, 2023

How High Is 0.6? Floors, Ceilings, and Headroom in Interpretability Probing

Probes are the workhorse of interpretability. If a model's hidden states predict a variable, the model is said to represent it. But a probe score has no fixed meaning. An R^2 of 0.6 may only reflect what the input already gives away, and the same score can mean different things on different data. We propose reading every probe score against two reference points: a floor, what a declared set of simple inputs already predicts, and a ceiling, what the full input can predict. The gap between them, the headroom, is the range in which a probe can show that a model computes something beyond the simple inputs. We prove that headroom vanishes in two ways: the target stops depending on a hidden variable the model must infer, or the input stops revealing it. We test this on transformers trained for in-context meta-analysis, which must infer the hidden heterogeneity between studies to weight them correctly, and where both reference points are known. Under distribution shift, probe scores fall and prediction error rises 12--15times, yet the model recovers a similar share of the headroom, indicating that the data lost information, not the representation. We then analyze the real models. The single-cell foundation model scGPT encodes biological variability only partially. We also revisit four influential LLM probing studies, which claim that models represent geography, the state of an Othello board, truth, and the demographics of their users. Against a floor computed from the input text alone, some of these claims hold, while others are largely explained by the text itself.

  • 1 authors
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Oct 5

Asking Earns Nothing: Scoring the Decision to Act in BFCL Multi-Turn

An agent that lacks the information it needs should ask rather than act, and the task definitions of agent leaderboards say so. BFCL multi-turn builds two of its four categories around a turn on which the model is supposed to ask, and its scorer never looks at that turn: the gold trajectory there is empty, the checker skips it, and the scripted user cannot answer, so asking earns nothing, guessing costs nothing on that turn, and asking twice loses the item. The benchmark also contains the control experiment for that decision. A should-ask item is a base item with one piece of information removed from one turn, so the same request appears twice at the same turn index, once complete and once not: on the first the model should make the call that changes the world, on the second it should ask. We score one decision per pair, whether the model attempted a world-changing call on that turn, read off the stored trajectories with no LLM judge; acting always and asking always both score 50. On the 223 pairs that pose this decision, gpt-5.4 attempts the call on 83.4% of the complete turns and holds back on 78.0% of the incomplete ones, the best decision accuracy of seven models at 80.7%; on the same items the official score ranks it sixth and puts first a model that lands in the middle here. One added line telling gpt-5.4 not to ask pushes it toward acting on both sides of the pair, so its decision accuracy shows no detectable change, while its official score rises by 13.5 to 23.5 points on the two should-ask categories and on the base twins; the opposite line, telling gemma-4-31B-it to ask first, improves its decision by 4.5 points and gains no official score. The score moves with the push toward action, not with the decision. We release the pairs, a turn-level scorer that runs on any BFCL output directory without an API key, and 31 manually verified bad items.

  • 2 authors
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Oct 2

Auditing Multimodal LLM Raters: Central Tendency Bias in Clinical Ordinal Scoring

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

Capable Teacher, Myopic Scorer: Reward-Free Teacher Repair for Agentic On-Policy Distillation

Agentic on-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student agent on its own trajectories while a teacher scores every token. A natural explanation of where it goes wrong is compounding error: the student's mistakes carry its trajectories beyond the region where the teacher is reliable, so recent methods keep training inside that region, through episode-length curricula, teacher-guided turns, prefix replay, or teacher intervention where the two disagree. We show this explanation is incomplete. From the states where the student departs most from the teacher, the teacher's own takeovers still finish the task, yet the student trained on its token scores keeps running out of turns. We attribute this to the myopia of next-token scoring. The teacher rates each token without seeing where the episode ends, so its scores let through the safe, delaying moves that outcome-based RL would punish with zero reward, a penalty agentic OPD lacks. We call this difference between what the teacher does and what it scores the rollout-scorer gap. We propose Rollout-to-Scorer Distillation (R2S), which repairs the scorer before distillation by mining high-disagreement states from the untrained student, running teacher takeovers from them, keeping the states where enough takeovers pass a reward-free check such as consensus or an LLM judge, and fine-tuning the teacher to give its takeover-informed scores on every assistant token from the divergence turn onward, without the takeover in context. The repaired teacher is frozen as the sole scorer for standard OPD, requiring no task reward during repair or training. Across three environments, two teachers and four students, R2S outperforms three state-of-the-art agentic-OPD methods in all twelve teacher-student-environment cells, by 12.8 success points on average over the best of them in each cell. Project page: https://tree-shu-zhao.github.io/r2s/.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 19

WORTH Benchmark: Evidence Discovery under Not-Fully-Cooperative Information -- A Two-Episode Pilot

Existing reasoning evaluations typically provide task-relevant information to models as available premises, rarely examining concurrently how models discover evidence autonomously and how information presentation within narratives guides or obscures judgment. This paper proposes the WORTH Benchmark: models read original mystery narratives without clue annotations, autonomously select key clue sentences, identify case participants, and explain their reasoning process. The narrative materials are designed by professional authors such that evidence facilitating reasoning coexists with narrative arrangements that delay the revelation of truth. We report a pilot experiment under full-story conditions across two episodes, conducting a total of 70 formal runs on models, of which 67 runs are content-scorable. Scoring separately records hits on author-designated key clue sentences and participant selections; natural language explanations are used for case diagnosis and are not scored independently. The results show that clue hits and participant judgments are not synchronized; across 37 content-scorable runs in Episode 02, 31 runs simultaneously selected the same set of incorrect participants, while adjacent suspicion-oriented and exoneration-oriented sentences were selected 25 times and 0 times, respectively. These phenomena illustrate the diagnostic value of component-wise analysis and suggest that not-fully-cooperative informational relationships may influence evidence selection and judgment. This study only implements full-story conditions for two episodes, and does not establish stable model rankings or infer general mechanisms on this basis; human player records have not yet been cleaned, and this version does not report human-model comparisons.

BreadStudio Bread Studio
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Oct 19 1

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

  • 96 authors
·
Feb 9, 2020

Rubric Rewards from Item Response Theory

Many language tasks have no single answer that can be checked automatically. Rubrics provide criteria for judging responses to these tasks. For reinforcement learning, the resulting verdicts must be combined into a scalar reward. A common approach sums the points assigned to satisfied criteria. Distinct verdict patterns can thus receive the same reward, and the fixed points encode how much each criterion should count, not how strongly its verdict distinguishes the current rollouts. Beyond this aggregation problem, judging the full rubric needs more judge requests as the criterion count grows. To address these limitations, Rubric Response Theory (RRT) measures quality and selects criteria when rubric criteria are monotone indicators of a shared target. Rather than adding assigned points, RRT uses a two parameter item response model that treats the verdict pattern as evidence about scalar quality specific to the rubric. Under this model, its likelihood score maximizes the local signal-to-noise ratio for quality. Its Response Parameter Network (RPN) reads the prompt and criterion text to predict criterion difficulty and discrimination. As the policy distribution changes during training, RRT uses online expectation maximization to update the RPN from current rollout verdicts. With Qwen3.5-4B as the policy, RRT's macro criterion score across Medical, Science, Rubrics as Rewards Science, and RubricBench is 1.7 points above that of group relative policy optimization (GRPO). On hard and very hard criteria in Medical and Science, RRT gains 2.8 to 5.6 points over GRPO. At half the criterion budget, adaptive Fisher selection with a frozen RPN keeps the macro criterion score across four datasets within 0.1 points of GRPO with full judging. These results show RRT can reduce judge requests while remaining competitive with GRPO.

microsoft Microsoft
·
Sep 27 2

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.

  • 50 authors
·
Oct 6, 2023

Equal Ranking Quality, Different Decisions: Measuring and Reducing Order Dependence in LLM Scorers

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.