Daily Papers

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by representing the sources of uncertainties and accounting for the day-to-day variability of error growth in the atmosphere. This paper presents a novel approach to obtain a weather forecast model for ensemble forecasting with machine-learning. AIFS-CRPS is a variant of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) developed at ECMWF. Its loss function is based on a proper score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). For the loss, the almost fair CRPS is introduced because it approximately removes the bias in the score due to finite ensemble size yet avoids a degeneracy of the fair CRPS. The trained model is stochastic and can generate as many exchangeable members as desired and computationally feasible in inference. For medium-range forecasts AIFS-CRPS outperforms the physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble for the majority of variables and lead times. For subseasonal forecasts, AIFS-CRPS outperforms the IFS ensemble before calibration and is competitive with the IFS ensemble when forecasts are evaluated as anomalies to remove the influence of model biases.

Fairness in artificial intelligence models has gained significantly more attention in recent years, especially in the area of medicine, as fairness in medical models is critical to people's well-being and lives. High-quality medical fairness datasets are needed to promote fairness learning research. Existing medical fairness datasets are all for classification tasks, and no fairness datasets are available for medical segmentation, while medical segmentation is an equally important clinical task as classifications, which can provide detailed spatial information on organ abnormalities ready to be assessed by clinicians. In this paper, we propose the first fairness dataset for medical segmentation named Harvard-FairSeg with 10,000 subject samples. In addition, we propose a fair error-bound scaling approach to reweight the loss function with the upper error-bound in each identity group, using the segment anything model (SAM). We anticipate that the segmentation performance equity can be improved by explicitly tackling the hard cases with high training errors in each identity group. To facilitate fair comparisons, we utilize a novel equity-scaled segmentation performance metric to compare segmentation metrics in the context of fairness, such as the equity-scaled Dice coefficient. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that our fair error-bound scaling approach either has superior or comparable fairness performance to the state-of-the-art fairness learning models. The dataset and code are publicly accessible via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-fairseg10k.

We introduce Metric-Fair Prompting, a fairness-aware prompting framework that guides large language models (LLMs) to make decisions under metric-fairness constraints. In the application of multiple-choice medical question answering, each {(question, option)} pair is treated as a binary instance with label +1 (correct) or -1 (incorrect). To promote {individual fairness}~--~treating similar instances similarly~--~we compute question similarity using NLP embeddings and solve items in joint pairs of similar questions rather than in isolation. The prompt enforces a global decision protocol: extract decisive clinical features, map each \((question, option)\) to a score f(x) that acts as confidence, and impose a Lipschitz-style constraint so that similar inputs receive similar scores and, hence, consistent outputs. Evaluated on the {MedQA (US)} benchmark, Metric-Fair Prompting is shown to improve performance over standard single-item prompting, demonstrating that fairness-guided, confidence-oriented reasoning can enhance LLM accuracy on high-stakes clinical multiple-choice questions.

Motivated by the strong performance of CLIP-based models in natural image-text domains, recent efforts have adapted these architectures to medical tasks, particularly in radiology, where large paired datasets of images and reports, such as chest X-rays, are available. While these models have shown encouraging results in terms of accuracy and discriminative performance, their fairness and robustness in the different clinical tasks remain largely underexplored. In this study, we extensively evaluate six widely used CLIP-based models on chest X-ray classification using three publicly available datasets: MIMIC-CXR, NIH-CXR14, and NEATX. We assess the models fairness across six conditions and patient subgroups based on age, sex, and race. Additionally, we assess the robustness to shortcut learning by evaluating performance on pneumothorax cases with and without chest drains. Our results indicate performance gaps between patients of different ages, but more equitable results for the other attributes. Moreover, all models exhibit lower performance on images without chest drains, suggesting reliance on spurious correlations. We further complement the performance analysis with a study of the embeddings generated by the models. While the sensitive attributes could be classified from the embeddings, we do not see such patterns using PCA, showing the limitations of these visualisation techniques when assessing models. Our code is available at https://github.com/TheoSourget/clip_cxr_fairness

Fairness remains a critical concern in healthcare, where unequal access to services and treatment outcomes can adversely affect patient health. While Federated Learning (FL) presents a collaborative and privacy-preserving approach to model training, ensuring fairness is challenging due to heterogeneous data across institutions, and current research primarily addresses non-medical applications. To fill this gap, we establish the first experimental benchmark for fairness in medical FL, evaluating six representative FL methods across diverse demographic attributes and imaging modalities. We introduce FairFedMed, the first medical FL dataset specifically designed to study group fairness (i.e., demographics). It comprises two parts: FairFedMed-Oph, featuring 2D fundus and 3D OCT ophthalmology samples with six demographic attributes; and FairFedMed-Chest, which simulates real cross-institutional FL using subsets of CheXpert and MIMIC-CXR. Together, they support both simulated and real-world FL across diverse medical modalities and demographic groups. Existing FL models often underperform on medical images and overlook fairness across demographic groups. To address this, we propose FairLoRA, a fairness-aware FL framework based on SVD-based low-rank approximation. It customizes singular value matrices per demographic group while sharing singular vectors, ensuring both fairness and efficiency. Experimental results on the FairFedMed dataset demonstrate that FairLoRA not only achieves state-of-the-art performance in medical image classification but also significantly improves fairness across diverse populations. Our code and dataset can be accessible via link: https://wang.hms.harvard.edu/fairfedmed/.

Algorithmic decision-making has become deeply ingrained in many domains, yet biases in machine learning models can still produce discriminatory outcomes, often harming unprivileged groups. Achieving fair classification is inherently challenging, requiring a careful balance between predictive performance and ethical considerations. We present FairTTTS, a novel post-processing bias mitigation method inspired by the Tree Test Time Simulation (TTTS) method. Originally developed to enhance accuracy and robustness against adversarial inputs through probabilistic decision-path adjustments, TTTS serves as the foundation for FairTTTS. By building on this accuracy-enhancing technique, FairTTTS mitigates bias and improves predictive performance. FairTTTS uses a distance-based heuristic to adjust decisions at protected attribute nodes, ensuring fairness for unprivileged samples. This fairness-oriented adjustment occurs as a post-processing step, allowing FairTTTS to be applied to pre-trained models, diverse datasets, and various fairness metrics without retraining. Extensive evaluation on seven benchmark datasets shows that FairTTTS outperforms traditional methods in fairness improvement, achieving a 20.96% average increase over the baseline compared to 18.78% for related work, and further enhances accuracy by 0.55%. In contrast, competing methods typically reduce accuracy by 0.42%. These results confirm that FairTTTS effectively promotes more equitable decision-making while simultaneously improving predictive performance.

The ROC curve is the major tool for assessing not only the performance but also the fairness properties of a similarity scoring function. In order to draw reliable conclusions based on empirical ROC analysis, accurately evaluating the uncertainty level related to statistical versions of the ROC curves of interest is absolutely necessary, especially for applications with considerable societal impact such as Face Recognition. In this article, we prove asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves of similarity functions as well as for by-product metrics useful to assess fairness. We also explain that, because the false acceptance/rejection rates are of the form of U-statistics in the case of similarity scoring, the naive bootstrap approach may jeopardize the assessment procedure. A dedicated recentering technique must be used instead. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, various experiments using real face image datasets provide strong empirical evidence of the practical relevance of the methods promoted here, when applied to several ROC-based measures such as popular fairness metrics.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.